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汇市研究:美元的上升之路

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 Dollar strength was the continuing theme of Wednesday.The dollar index pushed above the 85.0 level and more decisively above the peak of 84.75 seen in mid-2013,putting the dollar(on this measure)at levels last seen mid-2010 when the euro was getting hammered in the early stages of the Eurozone crisis.We are now in our 11th consecutive week of dollar gains,something not seen since the start of floating exchange rates in the early 70s.Both sterling and the euro are bearing the brunt of this latest move.EURUSD has moved decisively below the 1.28 level,whilst the recovery in cable has been halted by the break below trendline support drawn from the 16th September low.This is less a data driven dollar move,because the recent run of data through September has actually fallen short of expectations.It’s more down to a shift in FX market dynamics,as the dollar shifts more decisively from being a funding currency towards being an asset currency.The push lower in Eurozone interest rates and yields has naturally added to this dynamic,together with the weakness seen in commodity prices and also with it the Aussie dollar and also the kiwi.

 周三美元的强势仍在继续。美元指数推高到了85.0之上,完全超越了2013年年中的最高值84.75,也将美元推到了2010年年中才见过的水平;当时正处在欧元区危机的初期,而欧元则倍受打击。美元已经连续十一周上升,这是自七十年代浮动汇率开始以来所不曾见过的。而英镑和欧元都在这次变动中首当其冲。欧元美元已经到了1.28之下,而英镑美元因为跌到了以九月十六日低点画出的趋势线之下而停止了恢复。美元的这种变动不是因为数据,因为九月份数据的走势已经跌出预期。这种变动更多是因为外汇市场的动态出现了转变,因为美元已经从融资货币渐渐转变为资产货币。欧元区利率和债券收益的走低则加剧了这种转变,其中当然还有商品价格疲软的原因;而澳元和新元也是原因之一。

 The kiwi pushed below the 0.80 level in overnight trading,to levels not seen for a year.There were more stern comments from central bank governor Wheeler,who said that the central bank expected“significant further depreciation”of the currency.The sentiments of both the RBNZ and also RBA are well known,but the timing of the remarks are pertinent given the generalised dollar strength at this time.The Aussie itself has broken below the 0.88 level,undermined by(amoung other things)the recent weakness of iron ore prices.The moves over recent days suggest we are going to see a fairly lively month last few trading days of the month.

 昨天的交易中新元走低到了0.80之下,是今年到目前为止未曾见过的水平。新西兰央行总裁Wheeler不断发出严厉的评论,说新西兰央行预期新元会“进一步显著贬值”。新西兰央行和澳联储的态度大家都比较清楚,但他们选择的时机还是很恰当,因为此时美元正好走强。澳元自己已经下降到了0.88之下,这主要是因为铁矿石(还有其他因素)价格最近疲软导致的。最近几天的变化显示出,这个月剩下的几个交易日会相当活跃。

  机构来源:FxPro

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