[火线]耶伦：美联储为了稳住失业率将再次加息3到4次

金融界《火线》：一线之外你还需要知道更多！

2018年11月13日-14日，第十六届“《财经》年会2019：预测与战略”召开，金融界网站全程直击。

美联储前主席耶伦（JanetYellen）在与朱民的对话中表示，鲍威尔和美联储将继续逐步取消宽松的货币政策，让联邦基金利率回归“中立”立场，预计该举措在明年将继续实施，美联储为了稳住失业率将再次加息3到4次，除非出现出乎意料的重大经济事件。

耶伦表示，尽管美国宏观经济形势大好，但仍然存在下行风险。毕竟，往往是失衡导致了不可持续的繁荣。最常见的一点就是，美联储通过收紧政策来降低通胀，从而导致经济衰退。

耶伦提醒，美联储如今面临着一个十分棘手的任务：工作岗位继续保持着约20万个/月的增幅，大幅超过了稳定失业率状态下所应具有的水平。目前GDP 3％的增长速度，远远超出潜在增长率。这一现象部分归功于如今已实施的强刺激性财政政策。但是，这轮刺激所带来的影响可能会在货币政策刚刚发挥作用时（2020或2021年）基本上已经消失，届时形势会变得更加复杂。

以下为耶伦发言实录：

It’s a pleasure to join you this morning for your Annual conference on forecasts and strategies.I look forward to a wide-ranging discussion of issues confronting the US， China， and the global economy.

很高兴能够与大家一道参加今天早上的预测与策略年会。我期待就美、中以及全球经济问题与大家进行广泛的探讨。

In terms of some key macroeconomic objectives， the United States is performing exceptionally well.At 3.7％， the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to a 50-year low， even below levels that most participants in the Fed’s Open Market Committee judge to be consistent with “full employment.”Even after nine years of expansion， job gains still average around 200,000 per month.Inflation fell short of the Fed’s 2％ objective for almost six years， but it’s moved up and now looks to have settled near the Fed’s 2％ target.Strong US growth is a support to the global economy.

就一些主要的宏观经济目标而言，美国表现得异常优越。美国的失业率为3.7％，降至50年以来的新低，甚至要低于美联储公开市场委员会大多数委员所认定的“充分就业”情况下的失业率。在经历了9年的扩张之后，工作岗位依然保持着平均约20万/月的增幅。通胀率连续近6年低于美联储2％的目标值，但这一数字出现了增长，如今似乎在接近美联储2％目标值的位置徘徊。美国经济的强势增长为全球经济提供了支撑。

Beginning in 2015, with growing strength in the U.S. economy， the Federal Reserve embarked on the process of “normalizing” monetary policy.As Chair， my most important task was to get that process going in a manner that was gradual， well-communicated and calibrated to permit continuing progress toward our macroeconomic goals.We also sought to avoid unnecessary negative spillovers to our neighbors—spillovers of the type that occurred in 2013 due to the “taper tantrum.”In December 2015, we raised our target for the federal funds rate for the first time in seven years and in October of 2017, we began the process of shrinking the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet by redeeming some of the principal repayments on the securities in the Fed’s portfolio.Normalization of both short rates and the balance sheet are proceeding smoothly and， with the economy performing so well， Chair Powell and the FOMC are continuing the process of removing monetary accommodation to return the federal funds rate to a “neutral” stance.I expect that to continue over the next year unless there are significant economic surprises.

从2015年开始，随着美国经济实力的增长，美联储启动了货币政策“常态化”进程。作为美联储主席，我最重要的任务就是确保这一进程能够循序渐进地开展，并在期间进行广泛的沟通、不断地进行校正，从而让美国继续朝着宏观经济目标迈进。我们还努力避免对邻国产生不必要的负面溢出效应，也就是类似于2013年因“削减量化宽松恐慌”所引发的溢出效应。2015年12月，我们提高了联邦基金利率目标值，这在过去7年中尚属首次。2017年10月，我们通过部分赎回美联储所持证券的偿付本金，启动了美联储4.5万亿资产负债表缩减进程。短期利率和资产负债表的常态化进程进展顺利，而且有鉴于经济的优异表现，鲍威尔主席和公开市场委员会将继续逐步取消宽松的货币政策，让联邦基金利率回归“中立”立场。我预计该举措在明年将继续实施，除非出现出乎意料的重大经济事件。

Although the current US macroeconomic situation is excellent， central bankers are paid to worry—to look for dark clouds when the sun is shining.So let me enumerate a few downside risks.

虽然美国当前的宏观经济形势一片大好，但由于职责使然，各大央行的执掌者也都在居安思危。我想提一下几个下行风险：

One risk pertains to the chance of a recession in the next few years.Expansions don’t usually die of old age； typically， there’s a reason.Sometimes it’s due to imbalances that are driving an unsustainable boom.Most often the reason is that the Fed causes the recession by tightening policy to bring inflation down.

其中一个风险涉及未来几年可能发生的经济衰退。扩张通常不会因时间过长而消亡，它往往有其合理性。有时正是失衡导致了不可持续的繁荣。大多数情况下，它源于美联储为降低通胀而采取的紧缩政策所导致的经济衰退。

I don’t see the US economy at this point as suffering from serious imbalances.Household debt has declined considerably and credit growth has been moderate.The banking system is far better capitalized and more liquid than before the crisis； leverage in the financial sector is well below precrisis levels.I am concerned by the high level of nonfinancial corporate debt， which could be vulnerable in a slowing economy with rising interest rates； but the debt looks largely to be held by unlevered investors.Asset prices are elevated relative to historic valuation norms but reasonably normal relative to the low levels of long-term yields.There are of course risks that those rates could rise but many economists believe that slow productivity growth， aging populations and a strong demand for safe assets will depress real interest rates in the U.S. and other developed economies for a long time to come.

在我看来，美国经济在目前并没有出现严重的失衡。家庭负债出现了大幅下滑，信贷增长一直维持在较为温和的水平。银行系统的资本充足率和流动性远好于危机前。金融行业的杠杆也大幅低于危机前水平。但我担心的是非金融企业债务，这部分债务在经济增长缓慢、利率高企的时期可能会出现问题。然而，这部分债务似乎基本都由未加杠杆的投资者持有。资产价格相较于历史计价规范有所上升，但考虑到长期收益的走低，这一价格仍在正常的合理范围之内。当然，上述价格上升的风险依然存在，但很多经济学家认为生产力的低速增长、人口的老龄化以及对避险资产的强劲需求在今后很长一段时间内将压低美国和其他发达国家的实际利率。

There is a risk that the Fed will cause the next recession， but with skill and luck I believe it’s something the Fed has a good chance to avoid.That said， the Fed faces a very tricky task.As I mentioned， job gains are continuing at around 200,000 a month， a pace well above the level consistent with a stable unemployment rate.Moreover， unemployment has already declined below levels judged to be sustainable over the longer run and the current pace of growth of around 3％ far exceeds the growth rate of potential output.This partly reflects the highly stimulatory fiscal policy that is now in place.To complicate matters， that stimulus may well phase out at exactly the time that monetary policy begins to bite—in 2020 or 2021.Over the next year， I anticipate that the Fed will boost rates 3 or 4 additional times to stabilize the unemployment rate.Policy is not on a preset course though and the actual pace of Fed tightening will depend on how inflation and the labor market evolve relative to current expectations.Accomplishing such a “soft landing” is an exceptionally difficult task made more difficult by the current fiscal policy trajectory.But the odds of success are boosted by fact that inflation remains low； there are few if any signs of building inflation pressures； inflation expectations are well anchored； and the linkages between labor market slack and inflation look to be weak.

还有一个风险在于，美联储将引发新一轮经济衰退，但是通过良好的运作，再加上一点运气，我认为美联储很有可能能够避免此类事情的发生。尽管如此，美联储面临着一个十分棘手的任务。正如我刚才所提到的，工作岗位继续保持着约20万个/月的增幅，大幅超过了稳定失业率状态下所应具有的水平。此外，失业率已低于外界所认定的长期可持续水平，而且当前约3％的增幅大大超过了潜在产出的增速。这一现象部分归功于如今已实施的强刺激性财政政策。同时，这轮刺激所带来的影响可能会在货币政策刚刚发挥作用时（2020或2021年）基本上已经消失，因此届时形势会变得更加复杂。明年，我预计美联储为了稳住失业率将再次加息3到4次。不过，政策并不是预先设定好的，美联储紧缩政策的实际步伐取决于通胀和劳动力市场是否会按照当前预期的发展。完成这类软着陆是一件异常困难的任务，而当前财政政策轨迹则增加了这一任务的难度。下列因素有助于这一举措获得成功：通胀依然维持在较低水平；通胀压力上升的迹象不明显或不存在；通胀预期得到有效调控；而且劳动力市场疲软和通胀之间的关联并不是很强。

Some further risks pertain to the possible global spillovers and spillbacks from the Fed’s monetary policy and also from U.S. trade policy.I look forward to discussing these global linkages and risks in our conversation this morning.

还有一些风险关乎美联储货币政策和美国贸易政策所导致的可能的全球溢出和回溢。我期待在今天早上的对话中讨论这些全球性关联和风险。